Raw power
So, now what is happening? He is waiting.
I mentioned, perhaps not in this forum, that in four days the mood would be lost. Four days have gone (maybe I got the time wrong) but he is waiting for attention to leave Zimbabwe, then he will steal the election. Again. And the opposition (led by the MDC, or not led as the case may be) will sit around and do nothing. Lots of talks, going to the courts, and all that excuse for inactivity, but they will do nothing.
But does he have a choice? On one level you feel sorry for him. Although in the real world it is impossible to feel sorry. He cannot step down. He is riding the tiger. And many are on that tiger with him (the military and the corrupt elite). How can he step down? He cannot trust any local persons – any more than they could trust him. He stands the very real risk of ‘next stop, the Hague’. Him and many others in power (on the tiger).
He cannot trust the neighbours. (Any more than they can trust him). Charles Taylor going to ‘exile’ in Nigeria is a glaring factor in that equation. Off goes Charlie for a nice little corruptly and bloodily earned rest in a place where he is guaranteed safety, and suddenly, he is behind bars in Europe!
So what choice does he have? Stay in power (he and his gang), where the means of violence are readily available (and they do have degrees in violence, the University of Edinburgh cannot take those degrees from him), or shuffle off defeated (even if a ‘dignified’ defeat), and wait for violence to be done to you (not that the ICC will ever sentence anyone to death)? So what choice – use power (in the rawest sense of the word) from a position of power, where you can mete it out with a limited chance it will come back and bite you, or leave, to a place where there is a good chance that it will come along and bite you? And this is not a question he is asking alone.
So a run-off.
Note the difference between the vote and the count. There is every indication that the vote will go against him. It was an apathetic turnout at the real elections. The run off will not be apathetic. And there was a large number of pro-incumbent votes out from loyalty (a term used loosely to indicate those riding the same tiger as the incumbent) at the real election. This will not be a vote that can be relied on again. Makoni has survived this long, it shows you can leave the party without being hammered into the ground.
And then the count. There is massive experience amongst those with the degrees in violence with this. The ground work is being laid. The War Vets are being called out. The ZEC is being accused of irregularities (a cover story). A recount of 16 constituencies is being called for (again, a smoke screen). And a recount of the Presidential vote is being called for (how you can have a recount before you ‘know’ what the count is???) All ground work for a ‘better’ result being warranted.
However, as I also said, a change has happened.
My Masters paper was on Banda leaving Malawi. I noticed that Banda used party secretary-generals as scapegoats. He would ‘allow’ them to do his bidding (i.e. suppress all revolt, dissent, etc) and then ‘discover’ that they were ‘mean evil people’, and, for his beloved people he would credit the Secretary-General with all the blame and have them removed. Eventually (after years and Dick Mutenje) people stopped wanting to be the party Secretary-General, and those who unfortunately were just did not seem to be able to do his bidding. So Banda lost a tool. A method. A mechanism to stay in power. But it had worked in the meantime. Banda stayed in power until he was 94 (approximately) and had a brain tumor.
I think he has done the same with Zanu PF. While he has retained power, he has now lost, or is losing, the party. The military coup that we have been subjected to (I use ‘military’ to define those who were the old ZANLA High Command) is very near the surface now. Since 1997 (or even 1996), the minister in charge of every uniformed and armed ministry (Army, Air Force, Police, Prison Services, National Parks) was a ‘retired’ soldier. Since sometime in the 2000s (possibly 2004) every single Permanent Secretary in every single ministry was a ‘retired’ soldier. And more recently (2006 or 7?) the Joint Operations Command (JOC) has been meeting regularly with our president. Who tells who what to do in these meetings? We are controlled (maybe not ruled) by a military junta.
So what is the solution?
I do not know. That is joy of being an ‘activist. You can say what is wrong, without having to say (or do) what will make it right. Having said that, at least I have had my say. Getting the ‘facts’ out into the open, and discussing them, will at least lead to an understanding of the problem. And only if we understand the problem, can we come up with a ‘correct’ (or best) solutions in power through rigging and violence many Zimbabweans will just run off.