Zanu PF has one objective – to remain in power. Everything else is subject to that caveat. The apparatus of state (power apparatus, army, police, tax office, civil service, currency, central bank, other economic tools, etc) are to be used to that effect. The population of Zimbabwe, and the services they require (education, health, infrastructure – roads, water, refuse disposal) are to be used to that effect. The economy, and the economic basics, all primary, secondary and tertiary portions, are to be used to that effect. The ‘war veterans’ are to be used to that effect. Race is to be used to that effect.

The members of the ruling party are in power to make money. I am not a Marxist for nothing – Karl Marx believed, and I agree with him, that economics/money is at the root of EVERYTHING; he said it went right down to marriage – to create a better economic unit. So Zanu PF is a business, as is all politics. It is a job, a method of employment, a wage earner, and if you are good (or good at it), a very good ‘wage’ earner. A method of getting rich!

Zanu PF discovered that it was possible to buy power – that is, purchase people to keep them in power. This is known as patronage. And the army – civil servants with guns – were the most important ones to by bought.

Zanu PF discovered that there was no need to balance the budget. Feel free to spend more than you earn, because so long as you can print money, you can cover the gap. So long as there is no free press, or anyone to ask prying questions (eg a civil service that answers to Zimbabwe and not Zanu PF), they do not have to be bought off.

Civil service jobs (right up to the ministers) were the traditional method (as most socialist/labour/left wing governments are accused of) of buying power/patronage. Then Zanu PF made unbudgeted payouts for the war vererans. Then all the Ministerial permanent secretaries’ jobs went to ‘retired’ soldiers. Then farms for everyone the rank of major and above, and most politicians as well.

However, the farms ‘redistribution’ was a last step. (And why did Zanu PF stop land redistribution in 1985?); a) they failed to put farmers on farms – which is a crucial mistake when your economy is based on agriculture to the extent that ours was. (This incidentally is why land redistribution before 1985 was successful – you had to have a Master Farmers Certificate to be awarded a land grant). b) those given farms discovered that you actually had to farm the land to make money. Simply owning a farm did not make one wealthy.

This meant that, the long term plan, to take the mines and businesses, encountered problems. Bith the potntial givers and takers realised that just handing them out would not be enough, so there was little point in stealing them. Unfortunately, the means of buying patronage was running out.

Remember how a government is supposed to work in an economy? A budget is needed, where income = expenditure. Income is from taxes. Taxes are those levied on the economy. If the economy has collapsed and no economic activity is occurring, your tax will be less (or nothing) and therefore, your expenditure will be/should be less. Expenditure is how you buy power/make money.

But if you can print money, what do you need to balance a budget for?  Print more money to cover the gap. And talk fast (made easy by a lack of a free press) and convince people that there is some other reason for inflation (or cholera for that matter). However there is a physical limit to how much you can print and talk. Eventually it runs out. Even the stupidist people begin to think for themselves. Again, the means of buying patronage was running out.

Patronage jobs are given to people who are loyal to the giver of the job. Not based on any ability to do that job. Hence, rising to the top of any ‘official’ organisation have been those loyal to Zanu PF. The abilty to manage, get things accomplished, achieve goals, motivate staff and get the maximum work out of them, make machines and other apparatus continue to function, vehicle fleets continue to drive, service to be provided – that is secondary.

So, when you now go to any ‘government’ body, and find that nothing has been done; a) they want a bribe – because there is no ‘real’ (government) pay, and the only reason to stay in that position is for what you can take home to feed your family (and since we are not paying them via the tax routeÉ) b) there is no one of any competence (or if there is, they are in some menial job at the back of the outer office down that corridor on the left out of the way of the public who might actually pay them) to do anything.

So now, nothing works. No education, no health services, no refuse collection, no water, no electricty, no fuel, no food. Everyone with any competence has a job. In the UK of South Africa. But not to worry, cholera is under control.

This ‘failure to separate’ also leads to a new problem. Now that the ‘ruling’ party is the official opposition, the civil service (right down to rural and municipal levels) is out of step with (new) ruling party policy. They are no longer able to ‘make’ ruling party policy, which kept them making money from their position. Therefore, they have a serious ‘disinterest’ in seeing a change of ruling party, or listening to new orders from new bosses (who are really just the representatives of their real, old bosses, the population of Zimbabwe). Their patronage post is in jeopardy.

There most definately has been a coup. It has certainly not been overt, nor has it happened at any partcular point. It was hidden, and it crept up. But compare today to ten of fifteen years ago. Who conducted the coup? That is another reason that it has not been noticed. It has not really been the army (the ZNA, ZDF, Z Air Force, etc) It has been conducted by what I call the the Zanla High. Remember that stretching back to liberation war days, Zanu was the political side, a front for, Zanla. One of the liberation armies, the one that won the war.

They are the military establishment. Despite the fact that the Mujurus retired, Mutasa and Mnangagwa are ‘civilians’, Chinamasa is a lawyer, one is a party Chairman, one’s a policeman, one a prison officer, Shiri flits from army to air force, and a few others are also inside this group – they are the ‘militant’ core of Zanu PF/ZANLA (or the new one). They are not currently, or possibly ever have been, part of the classic Zimbabwean military, but they are part of a junta that has taken control of Zimbabwe, often using the classic military. They maintain their theory of military/militant takeover. Hence the concern with martial law, Botswana bases, arms shipments, the JOC, etc. It is what they know (and how they did it).

Post liberation-struggle, they have maintained ‘alternatives’ as layers of cover. ZAPU was absorbed a a cover. The political party, Zanu PF was formed as a cover (with possibly the party chairman as cover for, or controling from within, the junta), SADC and the AU were useful curtains to be worked on from within, etc.

These layers of cover are slipping away. Zapu is leaving, for example. In addition there is the Makoni factor. Simply by surviving, even if he failed to win, he has demonstrated that the former ruling party does not have to be slavishly followed. You can make you own voice be heard, say different things, suggest different paths, all away from that dictated by the Zanla high command.

And the former ruling party is fracturing. Some want to use power to retain power. Some want to reform the party and its policies, to regain mass support (and that power). Some want to vut and run with the money they have already made. Some want to (need to) retain power, even if there is no more money to be made, in order to retain that which they have already stolen. Real heart attack material!

They are bombing each other. Killing each other. (Quite convinced now that they do have ‘degrees in violence’). Party elections are fired upon by the riot squad. The civil service with guns are beating up bank tellers, and openly stealing from forex dealers.

So now what? So now what? How can they hold on? And it is my opinion that change is happening. I will not say to what, or when it will be finished, but it is happening. They have to do something new, because the old ways are bankrupt (like the country). Former friends are gone, former enemies are still enemies, and are no longer crying for the implementation of the unity agreement, but the removal of the regime, and the civil service are on a go slow, mainly because they are waiting to see who their new bosses are going to be.

They cannot dollarise. a) this would be an admission of failure. Too serious to contemplate or cover up, expecially after the party chairman ranted on at length about our ‘sovereignty’. (Which they have done what with? And was an excuse for what?) It is fine to ‘licence’ forex shops (it provides an income to steal), or charge forex earners in dollars for their electricity (or to licence their generators), but they cannot overtly simply move to dollars. b) they would have to balance a dollar budget. There could be no printing to paper over those gaps. And with no economy to provide income, there could be no expenditure. And if they cannot pay the civil service with guns, who will protect them from the civil service with guns?

Cholera. This cannot be hidden. It is our only export at the moment. And it cannot be solved with the current system. Either the system must be changed (impossible), or force/power/guns must somehow solve it (dismiss the problems).

Hence, my feeling that change is happening. A more naked, open, junta control, with no facade of democracy, (with no patronage to offer). Or a shakedown to more democratic control, stable economy (one you can plan within), health and education, roads, public transport, etc.

This entry was posted on January 5th, 2009 at 9:39 am by Michael Laban and is filed under Uncategorized. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.