I’m sitting at home a bit bleary eyed after some intense days in Harare. The phones don’t work, but Mugabe, probably in a bit of desperate (and I mean desperate) attempts at vote buying, has made sure that the electricity supply has been stable during this election. So, I’ve got lights, for a change. Water, meanwhile is still a problem. In Greendale, in the east of Harare, we go weeks without municipal water. People fill up containers from home owners with boreholes and they either carry their water or use “acquired” shopping trolleys from the nearby TM Supermarket to push it home.

But here I am waiting for Mugabe’s address to the nation which the rumour mill suggests will happen sometime soon. State controlled Zimbabwe television is still announcing parliamentary results, ploddingly and seemingly grudgingly. Then there’s Sky, BBC and CNN reporting that Zimbabwe is close to a truly historic moment – Mugabe stepping down.

I resonated with what a reporter, stationed at Beit Bridge, had to say about interviewing Zimbabweans at the border with them saying that they just can’t believe it. The thought of Mugabe stepping down boggles the mind. We’ve lived in his menacing shadow for so long that stepping out into the sunlight of freedom is almost too much to hope for.

But hope we must.

If the rumour mill is correct I wonder what sort of deal is currently being struck? Will it contain elements that will stick in our throats. Or should we accept that seeing the back of Bob, no matter what, is crucial to rebuilding Zimbabwe?

Certainly what many of us have learned in the last several years of political opposition in Zimbabwe is that we have to remain vigilant to the abuse of power that rulers so quickly succumb to in an effort to protect their positions.

At first glance, with 131 House of Assembly results announced, Zimbabwe’s election race is quite close. Zanu PF has claimed 64 seats, with 62 for the MDC (Tsvangirai) and 5 for Mutambara’s MDC.

The MDC (Tsvangirai) is doing particularly well in Harare, Bulawayo and Masvingo, while Zanu PF continues to cling to areas like Mashonaland West, East and Central, as well as in the Midlands. Results from Matabeleland and Manicaland have been slowest to come in. The MDC (Mutambara)’s 5 seats are all in Matabeleland South.

There have been some impressive gains for the MDC – for example a win in Gokwe Kabuyuni, and defeats of Zanu PF heavies like Chen Chimutengwende in Mazowe Central and Patrick Chinamasa in Makoni Central.

But there are also some worrying trends. At a House of Assembly level, the MDC and Zanu PF are almost tied in the number of constituencies won, but Zanu PF is ahead in terms of the number of votes cast. When the MDC wins, it is winning by an average of 3,000 votes. When Zanu PF wins, it wins by an average of over 4,000. So the MDC (Tsvangirai) is trailing Zanu PF in total votes cast by about 13%.

Zanu PF has also claimed some much larger wins than the MDC (Tsvangirai) has been given. In Mt Darwin West, Uzumba, Rushinga and Maramba Pfungwe, over 13,000 people reportedly voted for Zanu PF in each of these constituencies. The MDC’s largest wins are Budiriro (11,880 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)), Warren Park (9,652 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)) and Hatfield (9,575 votes for MDC (Tsvangirai). Voter turn out is around 40% – but Zanu PF won seats tend to be over this average, and MDC won seats – particularly in Bulawayo, are hovering far under. These particularly high turn out rural seats are among those the MDC will dispute, but court challenges have never been a productive way to challenge Zanu PF’s rule.

Also, the split in the MDC has handed Zanu PF some victories it might not other wise have taken, including Mutare South, Lupane West, Gokwe Kabuyuni, Vungu, Zvishavane-Ngezi and in particular Chirumanzu, where the MDC split right up the middle and back down both sides, with not one or two but three MDC candidates contesting.

There are still no guarantees. Zanu PF has more votes than any other party. But it only has 47% of the votes cast so far. If this trend continues at the presidential level, and Robert Mugabe (or any other candidate) doesn’t more than 50% of the presidential votes, a runoff will have to take place.

It’s either the guy just has an ear for good music or this is simply his deliberate idea of bringing “protest music” to the public domain. Others however, despite enjoying the music, still think this guy is plain stupid. This is a council owned “beer garden” as these places were called during the Federation years and are still thus called where men and women gather to take in huge quaffs of opaque beer. They do this under beautiful shady trees where a cool breeze defies the harsh African sun and they breathe good clean air and experience nature’s beauty – gratis.

Blaring from the speakers of a public address system with the din reaching more than 5 five neighbourhood streets is music which is likely to earn the man spinning the discs a thorough beating from the thought police. He plays Hugh Masekela where he exhorts by name African despots – including our very own – to cede power and retire peacefully; he plays Mbongeni Ngema’s Freedom Is Coming Tomorrow, from the Sarafina soundtrack; he plays Thomas Mapfumo’s Jojo; he plays that Oliver Mutukudzi classic Bvuma. And I am like, “What the %*$#? This is Sunday where those who voted and those who didn’t are at the pub imagining they are whiling away minutes expecting the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to begin the announcement of Saturday’s polls and here is a guy nailing his colours to the mast giving patrons – and whole neighbourhoods – his thoughts about the current affairs.

Who can blame him? Imbibers enjoy the beer and music despite their circumstances, and for them hope lies in both the music and deep in their hearts that a better Zimbabwe is nigh. If Chinx could sing about whites, if Manyika could sing about whites, if Toilet Tambaoga could sing about Blair, why can’t Zimbos who can’t sing listen to the music of their choice?

“There are two things worth aiming for: good music and a clean conscience” Paul Hindemith, 1895-1963, German composer

Zapiro’s very clear statement on what the results of a free and fair election would say.

I got an email today from Sokwanele which I thought excellent except for the title and the last paragraph – two crucial parts of messaging (in my opinion).

The title, What More Must We Do? and the last paragraph

The people of Zimbabwe have spoken and it is now time for Zanu PF, SADC, all other African bodies and the rest of the world to respect and support the will of the people.

suggest that unseating a dictator occurs solely through an election. It does not, and in fact we’ve tried that a few times. Sure there needs to be an election to expose – what is so clearly being exposed – the work of Rigger Mugabe. But it doesn’t end there. A stolen election needs to be backed up by strong civic resistance. And usually its a good idea to have civic resistance guided by strong leadership. This is where Plan B comes in – the elephant in the room as far as the political opposition and civil society is concerned.

As the more sensible brother, Moeletsi Mbeki, said in a BBC interview last night, it is undisputed that Tsvangirai has won this election, and the election in 2002. This isn’t the point – the point is how do you get Mugabe to comply with the opposition electoral victory?

There is absolutely no question that the MDC has worked hard and campaigned strongly, but this is not enough. The MDC must prepare their supporters for resistance and be willing to lead them. Clear leadership from the MDC will mitigate spontaneous and sporadic violence. Civil society organisations must ignite their memberships (if indeed they actually have them) and lead them in defense of their vote. The international community must be prepared to speak out and support democratic change in Zimbabwe.

We cannot continue to sub contract the response to electoral fraud in Zimbabwe to the international community. We cannot continue to shield the MDC from criticism for their lack of follow through.

Clearly, there’s a lot more we must do.

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Here are some of the voices of the people

We have tried the democratic route more than three times now and the election has been stolen. We have tried the courts, and up to now Tsvangirai does not have a verdict for an election of 2002.We have no choice but to go beyond “round 2” and we have to exercise people power. Odinga asserted himself and the world stopped and listened. Politics is about making the appropriate judgments and if Tsvangirai thinks the international community is going to give us independence then he will remain in opposition forever. Way Forward: Let’s reclaim State House, its unoccupied anyway!!!

Not all that is faced can be changed and nothing can be changed unless faced. This is the time Zimbabweans should not fear to demonstrate to ZANU PF and to the world that we now demand FREEDOM. If we sit and watch, we die. We take ACTION, we die. Better take ACTION this time, the WORLD may feel sorry and assist. If we sit and watch again, we shall all perish leaving Mugabe and his cronies.

Lets all be prepared for civil disobediance that is non violent. This regime will kill in order to stay in power and gauging from the “political impotence of our neighbours”, they may not intervene to stop the killings. Civil society should go out and consult the real people out there.. Amanda wrote that they should leave the comfort of press conferences in hotels and go out to “conscientize” people on the possibilities of Mugabe rigging the victory. Gaining consensus of the people in the post election actions is critical.

We don’t want to hear of any rigging becoz if that happens it means we all have to go the bush and do the right thing – fight the oppressor. I really do not want to think about the possibility of this rigging becoz it gets me mad completely. I believe he has always rigged in the past and the voters physically did nothing to express their views.This time around, I am sure the voters are very much eager to know the full results. Any misrepresentation to protect the regime, will trigger mass demonstration.

And South African readers of the Mail & Guardian Thought Leader blog had this to say on the question of whether Mbeki would comment if the Zimbabwean election was rigged

There won’t be any response. Or there’ll be a typically vague Mbeki-ish response, you know, the one which takes the long and winding road which actually goes nowhere and says nothing. He’ll probably quote Shakespeare or someone at some point too.

Quite diplomacy will be the order of the day. Do you really expect anything else?

The South African observers will declare the election free and fair no matter what transpires. Based on their declaration we all know what our president’s response will be

Thabo? Respond?

Mbeki will deny that it was a rigged election. He will come up with some ridiculous argument to defend his & the ANC’s point of view. The old freedom parties like the ANC, MPLA, Frelimo, SWAPO etc don’t want to see an opposition take power by the vote. The winds of change are blowing again in Africa and the days of the one party state are numbered and it scares the old guard.

Are anarchists born or created by circumstances in which they find themselves? African politics would seem to point to the latter. Self made anarchists you would say! We have in Zimbabwe a whole nation reeling under hardships with everyone including the mighty World Bank saying this is something that has never been seen outside a war zone. Interesting then the fires of a war zone are apparently being stoked as the nation awaits the outcome of March 29 polls, with the people’s party Zanu PF leading at the last count.

Someone asked an important question that has always lingered in the country’s political discourse: do rural folks honestly “adore” Zanu PF? And this was asked in the aftermath of the party of blood (bloody party if you fancy) registering mad votes in rural areas where the likes of Joice Mujuru, Bright Matonga etc claimed ridiculously huge votes. The profits of the Farm Mechanisation Programme perhaps?

But one has to take the pulse in the urban streets since the 29th of March – the people have had it, and if they are not pushed to anarchy and wild orgies of protests then it remains in the domain of the esoteric as one attempts to decipher why Zimbabweans will never rise and claim their right to a better life.