If there is a run off for the presidential election in Zimbabwe then Mugabe better start printing new posters.

When I’ve been out walking and running some of the streets of Harare I’ve noticed that Zimbabweans are taking back their power and pulling down presidential election posters glued to the walls of their private homes and businesses. Talking about glue, Zanu PF clearly used a poor quality glue because where Zimbabweans aren’t ridding themselves of Robert, the old man is simply peeling off the walls. In the shopping centre where I work, people waiting for their cash from the ATM have taken things a bit further, and have started scrawling profanities on Bob’s posters next to the cash dispenser.

A friend’s relative called her today from Nyamapanda with the news that Mugabe’s war veterans are roaming the country side threatening violence and accusing people of supporting the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). The person conveying the news said that if there is a run off then its unlikely that people will go out and vote for the MDC again because of the fear of a backlash.

There were over 8000 polling stations around Zimbabwe during the election and the MDC was concerned that at many of the rural polling stations there would be so few people voting that the authorities would be able to identify those who had voted for the opposition, and therefore the possibility of retribution would increase. Philip Barclay’s blog about election monitoring in rural Masvingo substantiates this where he states that the vote tally for Zanu PF was as low as 44 at one polling station.

Meanwhile in the office we’ve just been discussing the new Morgan Tsvangirai stickers starting to spring up in Newlands. Vote Morgan Tsvangirai for President – Africa’s Second Mandela. Hey, but this is a bit of a long shot surely? Comparisons are odious, and this one particularly so.

If anyone was the least confused before, surely all must know the truth by now.

Robert Mugabe has lost the presidential elections in Zimbabwe and his party is doing its best to falsify the results.

There can be no other reason for withholding the results 10 days after polls closed at 7pm on March 29, 2008.

Give us the results, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission and join us in the new Zimbabwe.

A diplomat with a sense of humour – that’s Philip Barclay. I love reading his blogs because they’re rooted in everyday Zimbabwean experience – no grandstanding just personal reflection. Here’s an excerpt from his latest blog in which he shares some of his election monitoring experience undertaken on behalf of the British Embassy. To read his full blog, click here

I am in a tiny place called Bikisa, deep in rural Masvingo, where Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF party has won every election that has ever been held. (Ian Smith did not believe in elections for black folk). So my assumption is that the big pile is Mugabe’s.

But I am wrong. The presiding officer asks for the votes to be counted. The smallest pile is Simba Makoni’s – 11 votes. The middling pile is Mugabe’s – 44 votes. Amazingly, incredibly, the Pisa-pile belongs to Morgan Tsvangirai. The polling officer gets tongue-tied at ‘one hundred and twenty-seven’ and loses count. She sighs desperately and starts again. 167. Tsvangirai has won with about three-quarters of the vote.

I force myself to keep breathing steadily; fainting at this point would not become an officer of Her Majesty’s Government.

Briggs Bomba, a Zimbabwean activist, has written a pretty good article on Zimbabwe’s current crisis. The full article is available online here but in the meantime read a few interesting excerpts:

On South African diplomacy

At this very late hour, statements by South African President Thabo Mbeki that ‘the situation in Zimbabwe is manageable’ and that ‘it is time to wait’ are not only unhelpful but a slap in the face for long suffering Zimbabweans, who at considerable risk and sacrifice went out to vote on March 29. There cannot be any plausible reason why results are not known seven days after voting! No, Mr President, this is not ‘a time to wait’; neither is it a ‘manageable situation’. This is more like a time bomb that can only be defused if the people’s vote is respected.

On possible response to a rigged election

The opposition in Zimbabwe must now show decisive leadership. While it is commendable that we have not seen ‘Kenyan style’ violence in the post election period, Zimbabwe’s opposition must learn from Kenyan opposition that the business of appealing to an incumbent’s courts does not work. There are pending cases in courts from the 2000 elections. In fact, with a compromised judiciary, such as Zimbabwe’s, court appeals only serve the purpose of disarming people’s vigilance by creating a distracting sideshow and reinforcing illusions of mitigation. Already a dilly dance has started in the courts with all sorts of delaying tactics meant to buy Mugabe time until its too late, rendering the court challenge academic. The opposition is best advised to resort to peaceful mass mobilization of people power to defend the vote. The opposition must lead unions, students and the full range of civic society in defending the people’s vote. Mugabe will only pay attention if he is convinced that he can no longer govern in the old way, therefore the strategy must be to paralyze the state through effective, peacefully direct action.

Comrade Fatso weighs in, so to speak, on that four letter word . . . fear

And now we have fear. A new, complex emotion to add to our ragged shopping basket that also holds anger, hope and anxiety. We fear that the regime may begin to end the beginnging of the end by trying to end our new beginning. We fear that the last kicks of the jongwe may last more than a few seconds. It may be weeks. Or months.

One shortage our rulers don’t seem to have is a shortage of humour. Their make-believe propaganda makes you smile and shudder at the same time. They have started a new propaganda offensive. White farmers are about to invade the country and steal back their farms. The MDC rigged the election by bribing the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC). It would be funny if it wasn’t so morbidly real. They have allegedly started arresting ZEC officials and invading farms.

So fear is in our stomachs. We’re in a state of limbo between where we were and where we want to go. Between an old Zimbabwe and a new Zimbabwe. The waitress comes to my table, serves my food and then delivers what she really wanted to put on the table. “What are they doing now? Do they want a re-run or a re-count? We have no president. We haven’t had one for over a week now. Now they’ve started invading farms again and the riot police are on the streets. We are being calm but we are scared.” Fear. Our familiar staple diet in this hungry land. Msavaya, a comrade of mine, was in the townships yesterday when a police man announced to a group of drinkers oustide a bottle store “We may not have a president but that doesn’t mean that public drinking is now legal!” The police know it just as the waitresses do. We are in limbo. And we are in fear because we know this beast. It has started kicking and lashing out.

Those of us in the democracy movement here need to campaign for the results to be released. If ZANU claims the need for a re-run then we must push for it to be within 3 weeks of the election. Together we must give birth to a nationwide campaign that keeps hope alive, from township to growth point. Those in the international community need to push for the results to be released. We must avoid a re-run because it could be bloody. But if ZANU wants a re-run then we must give them a re-run for their money. And their dirty wealth. We are so close to that sun on the horizon. I can almost see it through the dust. We need to walk together towards the sunset. We need to be crazy enough to keep hope alive.

Read more Comrade Fatso here

So, now what is happening? He is waiting.

I mentioned, perhaps not in this forum, that in four days the mood would be lost. Four days have gone (maybe I got the time wrong) but he is waiting for attention to leave Zimbabwe, then he will steal the election. Again. And the opposition (led by the MDC, or not led as the case may be) will sit around and do nothing. Lots of talks, going to the courts, and all that excuse for inactivity, but they will do nothing.

But does he have a choice? On one level you feel sorry for him. Although in the real world it is impossible to feel sorry. He cannot step down. He is riding the tiger. And many are on that tiger with him (the military and the corrupt elite). How can he step down? He cannot trust any local persons – any more than they could trust him. He stands the very real risk of ‘next stop, the Hague’. Him and many others in power (on the tiger).

He cannot trust the neighbours. (Any more than they can trust him). Charles Taylor going to ‘exile’ in Nigeria is a glaring factor in that equation. Off goes Charlie for a nice little corruptly and bloodily earned rest in a place where he is guaranteed safety, and suddenly, he is behind bars in Europe!

So what choice does he have? Stay in power (he and his gang), where the means of violence are readily available (and they do have degrees in violence, the University of Edinburgh cannot take those degrees from him), or shuffle off defeated (even if a ‘dignified’ defeat), and wait for violence to be done to you (not that the ICC will ever sentence anyone to death)? So what choice – use power (in the rawest sense of the word) from a position of power, where you can mete it out with a limited chance it will come back and bite you, or leave, to a place where there is a good chance that it will come along and bite you? And this is not a question he is asking alone.

So a run-off.

Note the difference between the vote and the count. There is every indication that the vote will go against him. It was an apathetic turnout at the real elections. The run off will not be apathetic. And there was a large number of pro-incumbent votes out from loyalty (a term used loosely to indicate those riding the same tiger as the incumbent) at the real election. This will not be a vote that can be relied on again. Makoni has survived this long, it shows you can leave the party without being hammered into the ground.

And then the count. There is massive experience amongst those with the degrees in violence with this. The ground work is being laid. The War Vets are being called out. The ZEC is being accused of irregularities (a cover story). A recount of 16 constituencies is being called for (again, a smoke screen). And a recount of the Presidential vote is being called for (how you can have a recount before you ‘know’ what the count is???) All ground work for a ‘better’ result being warranted.

However, as I also said, a change has happened.

My Masters paper was on Banda leaving Malawi. I noticed that Banda used party secretary-generals as scapegoats. He would ‘allow’ them to do his bidding (i.e. suppress all revolt, dissent, etc) and then ‘discover’ that they were ‘mean evil people’, and, for his beloved people he would credit the Secretary-General with all the blame and have them removed. Eventually (after years and Dick Mutenje) people stopped wanting to be the party Secretary-General, and those who unfortunately were just did not seem to be able to do his bidding. So Banda lost a tool. A method. A mechanism to stay in power. But it had worked in the meantime. Banda stayed in power until he was 94 (approximately) and had a brain tumor.

I think he has done the same with Zanu PF. While he has retained power, he has now lost, or is losing, the party. The military coup that we have been subjected to (I use ‘military’ to define those who were the old ZANLA High Command) is very near the surface now. Since 1997 (or even 1996), the minister in charge of every uniformed and armed ministry (Army, Air Force, Police, Prison Services, National Parks) was a ‘retired’ soldier. Since sometime in the 2000s (possibly 2004) every single Permanent Secretary in every single ministry was a ‘retired’ soldier. And more recently (2006 or 7?) the Joint Operations Command (JOC) has been meeting regularly with our president. Who tells who what to do in these meetings? We are controlled (maybe not ruled) by a military junta.

So what is the solution?

I do not know. That is joy of being an ‘activist. You can say what is wrong, without having to say (or do) what will make it right. Having said that, at least I have had my say. Getting the ‘facts’ out into the open, and discussing them, will at least lead to an understanding of the problem. And only if we understand the problem, can we come up with a ‘correct’ (or best) solutions in power through rigging and violence many Zimbabweans will just run off.