It appears to me that there is much excitement around Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections, and even naive hope that Simba Makoni may somehow, by some miracle, defeat Mugabe at the polls. People seem to have forgotten that democracy and good governance are not part of Zanu PF’s political DNA. President Mugabe was not elected by his party to be Presidential candidate – in fact l believe that if the matter had been taken to the vote then Mugabe would not have been the candidate – but through hook and crook Mugabe emerged as Zanu’s sole Presidential candidate. The same thing is likely to happen with presidential elections, that Mugabe will somehow claim victory, regardless of the credentials or stature of candidates running against him. The electoral field does not allow for any other outcome. Already, pseudo-war veterans are threatening to deal viciously with Makoni.

Looking ahead, past the already rigged March 29 elections, the question is: what can be done for the people of Zimbabwe to prevail on Zanu PF and President Mugabe to embrace fundamental human rights, genuine democracy and good governance values?

Firstly, now, before the elections take place, the opposition and independent candidates must declare that the playing field is not level and detail all areas of concern from lack of access to free media, inability to campaign freely, a litany of repressive laws and widespread violence and intimidation. They and civil society must demand that Thabo Mbeki declares his initiative a failure before elections take place and point to the SADC standards and guidelines for the conduct of free and fair elections. Advocacy for regional action must target individual members of the SADC block because there are some culprit governments in SADC that share a passionate dislike for human rights and democracy alongside Zimbabwe and are preventing SADC from taking a more robust stance on Zimbabwe – these are Angola, Namibia and Swaziland. There is some hope in looking to South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and Tanzania to put pressure on Zimbabwe.

Secondly, SADC should now be dispatching observers to monitor Zimbabwe’s elections and additionally, South Africa should send its own team of observers in order to assist in the post-election period when the legitimacy of the election is called in question. Local groups must also be collecting evidence now of how the election is being rigged and not be sidetracked by the appearance on the horizon of the likes of Simba Makoni. For instance, l am highly suspicious of the figure being peddled in State media that 5.6 million people registered to vote in Zimbabwe, can this figure be independently verified?

Thirdly, the African Union and the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights must also have a team on the ground to ensure that Zimbabwe complies with its obligations under the African Charter on Human and People’s Rights particularly relating to conduct of elections. The legitimacy of the March 2008 elections will obviously be contested, so it better for the opposition and civil society to start preparing the evidence now, or alternative action. I support regional pressure (SADC led by South Africa) on Zimbabwe because l know that an internal uprising, without outside support, will lead to many deaths (given that our police force is trigger-happy and highly partisan), possibly on the scale of Kenya, if not worse. When elections were rigged in 2002 and 2005 Zimbabwe escaped violence but was let down by the region, my prayer is – please Not in 2008 again. It is my hope that the People’s Charter from the People’s Convention of 8 and 9 February will fully address some of these issues.