I got an email today from Sokwanele which I thought excellent except for the title and the last paragraph – two crucial parts of messaging (in my opinion).

The title, What More Must We Do? and the last paragraph

The people of Zimbabwe have spoken and it is now time for Zanu PF, SADC, all other African bodies and the rest of the world to respect and support the will of the people.

suggest that unseating a dictator occurs solely through an election. It does not, and in fact we’ve tried that a few times. Sure there needs to be an election to expose – what is so clearly being exposed – the work of Rigger Mugabe. But it doesn’t end there. A stolen election needs to be backed up by strong civic resistance. And usually its a good idea to have civic resistance guided by strong leadership. This is where Plan B comes in – the elephant in the room as far as the political opposition and civil society is concerned.

As the more sensible brother, Moeletsi Mbeki, said in a BBC interview last night, it is undisputed that Tsvangirai has won this election, and the election in 2002. This isn’t the point – the point is how do you get Mugabe to comply with the opposition electoral victory?

There is absolutely no question that the MDC has worked hard and campaigned strongly, but this is not enough. The MDC must prepare their supporters for resistance and be willing to lead them. Clear leadership from the MDC will mitigate spontaneous and sporadic violence. Civil society organisations must ignite their memberships (if indeed they actually have them) and lead them in defense of their vote. The international community must be prepared to speak out and support democratic change in Zimbabwe.

We cannot continue to sub contract the response to electoral fraud in Zimbabwe to the international community. We cannot continue to shield the MDC from criticism for their lack of follow through.

Clearly, there’s a lot more we must do.

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Here are some of the voices of the people

We have tried the democratic route more than three times now and the election has been stolen. We have tried the courts, and up to now Tsvangirai does not have a verdict for an election of 2002.We have no choice but to go beyond “round 2” and we have to exercise people power. Odinga asserted himself and the world stopped and listened. Politics is about making the appropriate judgments and if Tsvangirai thinks the international community is going to give us independence then he will remain in opposition forever. Way Forward: Let’s reclaim State House, its unoccupied anyway!!!

Not all that is faced can be changed and nothing can be changed unless faced. This is the time Zimbabweans should not fear to demonstrate to ZANU PF and to the world that we now demand FREEDOM. If we sit and watch, we die. We take ACTION, we die. Better take ACTION this time, the WORLD may feel sorry and assist. If we sit and watch again, we shall all perish leaving Mugabe and his cronies.

Lets all be prepared for civil disobediance that is non violent. This regime will kill in order to stay in power and gauging from the “political impotence of our neighbours”, they may not intervene to stop the killings. Civil society should go out and consult the real people out there.. Amanda wrote that they should leave the comfort of press conferences in hotels and go out to “conscientize” people on the possibilities of Mugabe rigging the victory. Gaining consensus of the people in the post election actions is critical.

We don’t want to hear of any rigging becoz if that happens it means we all have to go the bush and do the right thing – fight the oppressor. I really do not want to think about the possibility of this rigging becoz it gets me mad completely. I believe he has always rigged in the past and the voters physically did nothing to express their views.This time around, I am sure the voters are very much eager to know the full results. Any misrepresentation to protect the regime, will trigger mass demonstration.

And South African readers of the Mail & Guardian Thought Leader blog had this to say on the question of whether Mbeki would comment if the Zimbabwean election was rigged

There won’t be any response. Or there’ll be a typically vague Mbeki-ish response, you know, the one which takes the long and winding road which actually goes nowhere and says nothing. He’ll probably quote Shakespeare or someone at some point too.

Quite diplomacy will be the order of the day. Do you really expect anything else?

The South African observers will declare the election free and fair no matter what transpires. Based on their declaration we all know what our president’s response will be

Thabo? Respond?

Mbeki will deny that it was a rigged election. He will come up with some ridiculous argument to defend his & the ANC’s point of view. The old freedom parties like the ANC, MPLA, Frelimo, SWAPO etc don’t want to see an opposition take power by the vote. The winds of change are blowing again in Africa and the days of the one party state are numbered and it scares the old guard.

Are anarchists born or created by circumstances in which they find themselves? African politics would seem to point to the latter. Self made anarchists you would say! We have in Zimbabwe a whole nation reeling under hardships with everyone including the mighty World Bank saying this is something that has never been seen outside a war zone. Interesting then the fires of a war zone are apparently being stoked as the nation awaits the outcome of March 29 polls, with the people’s party Zanu PF leading at the last count.

Someone asked an important question that has always lingered in the country’s political discourse: do rural folks honestly “adore” Zanu PF? And this was asked in the aftermath of the party of blood (bloody party if you fancy) registering mad votes in rural areas where the likes of Joice Mujuru, Bright Matonga etc claimed ridiculously huge votes. The profits of the Farm Mechanisation Programme perhaps?

But one has to take the pulse in the urban streets since the 29th of March – the people have had it, and if they are not pushed to anarchy and wild orgies of protests then it remains in the domain of the esoteric as one attempts to decipher why Zimbabweans will never rise and claim their right to a better life.

When Zanu PF wins, it wins big – 10, 11 and even 13 thousand in some cases. . aside from exceptions like Budiriro and Warren Park. When the MDC wins, it is winning by much smaller margins, and even more worryingly, on the back of far, far lower voter turn out figures.

Zanu PF has long trumpeted its rural strongholds, and the MDC knows how difficult it is to campaign freely in rural spaces. These areas are often tightly controlled by (Zanu PF) chiefs and headmen, and there are high levels of intimidation and pressure on individual voters to toe the ruling party line. These are facts long known and commented on by the MDC and civil society actors, and are one of the key reasons why promises that Saturday’s elections would be free and fair are so laughable.

There are also more voters registered in rural areas than there are in urban centres.

Given these facts, and with a presidential election at stake, not just parliamentary seats, the MDC needs to be claiming bigger victories based on high voter turn out. They need to be seeing more voters coming out to support them in the cities than those supporting Zanu PF in the rural areas – not fewer as is now the case. Zanu PF is getting high turnout particularly in constituencies like Maramba Pfungwe and Rushinga where Zanu PF polled 14,961 and 14,264 votes respectively. Constituencies where voter turn out is far greater than the 40% average – like Maramba Pfungwe (56.91%) and Mutoko South (54.24%) – is where the MDC should focus on challenging the announced results, using their parallel vote cont.

As it stands, based on our own tally of results, Zanu PF has the largest number of votes of any party, but the combined other contesters outstrip Zanu PF.

These results have been recorded by hand off the ZEC announcements, and then transposed onto a spreadsheet, so some errors may have been made along the way, but it looks something like this:

• Total votes cast: 1,184,723

• Zanu PF: 555,189
• MDC (Tsvangirai): 492,346
• MDC (Mutambara): 94,560
• Combined Independents/Other parties: 42,628

So Zanu PF is ahead. But if you add up all non-Zanu PF votes, they don’t look quite so comfortably positioned:

• Zanu PF: 555,189 (46.9% of votes cast)
• Total non-Zanu PF votes: 629,534 (53.1%)

In other words, at least at a House of Assembly level, with 109 of 209 constituencies reported (one constituency was uncontested, and was declared for Zanu PF without an election), Zanu PF has more votes than any party, but not an absolute majority of votes cast.

If this trend continues for the balance of the seats, and extends to the Presidential election, we could very well be looking at a run off, if not an opposition election victory in the first round.

Comrade Fatso tells it like it is. He also re-affirms some of our bloggers opinions. The MDC is not following up their victory press conferences with any campaign to re-engage Zimbabweans after the vote on Saturday. While the MDC rightly has to take time tallying and making sense of the results, they are leaving Zimbabweans in a vacuum. I disagree with those who say that the delay in the announcement of results is causing tension and anger. As Comrade Fatso points out it can have the opposite effect of causing uncertainty and doubt – after all the regime controls all public media, and the MDC’s information capacity has always been weak.

Comrade Fatso says we can’t defend what we don’t know. In Amanda’s recent blog, Show us the figures, she argues that as soon as ZEC announces results, the MDC should be using all of its capacity and machinery to share their own comparative results, highlight discrepancies and make sure that their supporters are aware of the electoral fraud. Whilst it is important that this comparison is being done by initiatives like the Independent Results Centre, freedom is not won on the Internet. It is won by making sure people on the street are kept informed and inspired.

Victory celebrations, confusion, uncertainty. That’s the air that Harare’s breathing today. ‘Zvinhu hazvina kumira bho’ says a well known forex dealer to me. ‘No, its looking good actually,’ I tell him. ‘MDC is beating ZANU by far at the moment.’ Jealous, a quiet waiter, serving me coffee comments ‘So its bad heh?!’ ‘No, they’re winning actually, Jealous,’ I have to affirm. ‘Tsvangirai is ahead in the presidential elections’. The MDC is holding press conference after press conference while many people are holding zvakapressa conferences. Many think things have gone terribly wrong in the elections because the message from the MDC hasn’t filtered to them. And the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission is announcing results at the pace of a wheelchair-less cripple making their way down a power-cut Parirenyatwa corridor.

‘Tahwina!’ is the other popular cry that lives beside the uncertainty. Those who have got access to MDC information have erupted into parties. The popular suburb of Highfields was a people’s carnival last night as residents celebrated the MDC success in their constituency. The riot police arrived and politely asked them to carry on partying the following day. The residents, stunned by the calm police force, agreed. The table next to me at the Book Cafe has been an all-day drinking session as they drink to victory and joke about ZANU’s failure. Victory is in the air. But so is uncertainty. MDC has quite likely won a big victory in the polls but the updates aren’t getting out to the people. The townships should be filled with flyers, pamphlets and megaphones updating the people. And the MDC should build this hope so that if ZANU does try and steal this election then the people will resist. We can defend victory. We can’t defend what we don’t know.

This is Comrade Fatso’s Daily Blog during the Zimbabwe Election period. See www.comradefatso.vox.com

For Daily Election Blogs by other MAGAMBA! poets and activists see www.myspace.com/magamba

Against the backdrop of a blatantly unfair pre-election environment, Zimbabweans voted on 29 March to indicate the direction they want the country to go. According to electoral laws, all votes are counted, verified and displayed outside each polling station. This is especially useful since much of the rigging has taken place in the counting of the vote. Voting ended at 7pm and, in an unprecedented move, Zimbabwe Electoral Commission delayed announcing results for at least 36 hours and only started a slow process of announcing results at 6am on Monday, 31 March. The MDC, through its elections directorate, simply collected and collated all votes displayed outside polling stations and announced a resounding victory for Tsvangirai’s MDC.

Because of the highly suspicious behaviour of ZEC of taking too long to announce official results, there are genuine fears that Mugabe and ZANU PF want to subvert the will of the people and silence the people who have spoken through the ballot by fixing figures and announcing that Mugabe and ZANU PF as winners. There are rumours now swilling in Harare that security chiefs are in marathon meetings preparing to rig elections and prepare to crush any challenge to their electoral fraud.

I must say the conduct of ZEC is reckless and inconsiderate as it puts the nation at risk of a Kenya style revolt as the absence of official results for no apparent reason creates tension and anxiety in the people. It is criminal and treasonous for security chiefs to interfere with the counting of the vote and the announcements; security chiefs must be warned that days of lawlessness and mayhem in Zimbabwe are over. In a new Zimbabwe we will hold them to account for their actions. If Zimbabwe’s army and police think that they can hold the nation hostage they are dreaming; no-one can stop the wind of change that is sweeping across Zimbabwe, not Mugabe, not Chihuri, and not Chiwenga. Mugabe has said his conscience will not let him sleep if he steals an election (l wonder how he has managed to sleep since 2000), so he must heed his conscience and do the honourable thing of respecting the will of the nation. Zimbabwe needs a new political leadership with fresh ideas. Zimbabwe cannot move on with Mugabe at the helm; Mugabe must go, and he must go now before he plunges our beloved country into chaos and bloodshed.

ZANU PF may want to take comfort in the knowledge that they have rigged before and there was no uprising and South Africa and others looked away and pretended all was well. That was then, this time the people of Zimbabwe will defend their vote; the prospect of another disastrous five years with Mugabe and ZANU PF is motivation enough to take the struggle to the next level, on the streets. What Zimbabwe needs is a new leader with fresh ideas, not the look-east nonsense and diet of starvation that we have known with Mugabe. This time the rigging is easier to expose because results are displayed at polling stations; so we must defend the vote and pray that all patriotic and peace loving security forces must join the people of Zimbabwe and say no to Mugabe. Let us all stand up and act to stop Mugabe squandering our future.

The people of South Africa must stand in solidarity with us in Zimbabwe during this, our hour of great need, and prevail on Thabo Mbeki to demand that Mugabe respects the will of the people. The African Union has rejected all forms of unconstitutional changes of government and the massive electoral fraud unfolding in Zimbabwe is clearly unconstitutional and must be severely condemned as such by AU. In the case of Kenya, the African Union led the international community in activating the international duty to protect the fundamental rights of Kenyans, sadly, it was after considerable loss of life. My appeal to Mbeki and SADC is that they help stop this madness in Zimbabwe now before Mugabe plunges us into total darkness. It is with a heavy heart and tears in my eyes that l write this appeal. Now that the people have spoken, Mugabe and ZANU PF have a moral and legal obligation to give expression to the voice of the people and the respect the outcome of the elections. In Shona we say, Chisingaperi Chinoshura – which extorts all to know that everything has an end; for Mugabe and ZANU PF’s leadership of Zimbabwe the end has come and l urge them to accept it.