We sent out a Kubatana email newsletter today to our large mailing list and we included a quote from Helen Keller that talked about the need for us to remember that its the actions of the “honest workers” that are just as heroic as those of our political leaders. I was reminded of Helen Keller’s quotation this evening. As the sun was setting we were still in the office when we were visited by two women, one of whom had recently suffered a miscarriage and lost a baby girl. But there she was bringing cold cokes, chips, biscuits and chocolates because she thought we could do with a treat to ease the hard work of election time. Thoughtful, kind and willing to reach out – needless to say we at Kubatana were inspired!

Tonight as I get frustrated messages from people wondering what exactly is going on I’m also reminded of how often citizens are the last to know anything whilst politicians make deals deciding our fate – for better or worse.

With 160 House of Assembly seats announced – and 50 to go, Zimbabwe’s election results are looking like this:

• Zanu PF – 78
• MDC (Tsvangirai) – 77
• MDC (Mutambara) – 5

This means both Zanu PF and the MDC (Tsvangirai) have more than one third of the seats in the House – enough to block one another from fast tracking any Constitutional amendment. BBC, CNN, and the New York Times all suggest increasingly confirmed reports that some kind of negotiated transition, exit package, or deal is in the works. But no matter what happens tonight or as this week unfolds, blocking one another’s 2/3 majority may prove important down the line.

I’m sitting at home a bit bleary eyed after some intense days in Harare. The phones don’t work, but Mugabe, probably in a bit of desperate (and I mean desperate) attempts at vote buying, has made sure that the electricity supply has been stable during this election. So, I’ve got lights, for a change. Water, meanwhile is still a problem. In Greendale, in the east of Harare, we go weeks without municipal water. People fill up containers from home owners with boreholes and they either carry their water or use “acquired” shopping trolleys from the nearby TM Supermarket to push it home.

But here I am waiting for Mugabe’s address to the nation which the rumour mill suggests will happen sometime soon. State controlled Zimbabwe television is still announcing parliamentary results, ploddingly and seemingly grudgingly. Then there’s Sky, BBC and CNN reporting that Zimbabwe is close to a truly historic moment – Mugabe stepping down.

I resonated with what a reporter, stationed at Beit Bridge, had to say about interviewing Zimbabweans at the border with them saying that they just can’t believe it. The thought of Mugabe stepping down boggles the mind. We’ve lived in his menacing shadow for so long that stepping out into the sunlight of freedom is almost too much to hope for.

But hope we must.

If the rumour mill is correct I wonder what sort of deal is currently being struck? Will it contain elements that will stick in our throats. Or should we accept that seeing the back of Bob, no matter what, is crucial to rebuilding Zimbabwe?

Certainly what many of us have learned in the last several years of political opposition in Zimbabwe is that we have to remain vigilant to the abuse of power that rulers so quickly succumb to in an effort to protect their positions.

At first glance, with 131 House of Assembly results announced, Zimbabwe’s election race is quite close. Zanu PF has claimed 64 seats, with 62 for the MDC (Tsvangirai) and 5 for Mutambara’s MDC.

The MDC (Tsvangirai) is doing particularly well in Harare, Bulawayo and Masvingo, while Zanu PF continues to cling to areas like Mashonaland West, East and Central, as well as in the Midlands. Results from Matabeleland and Manicaland have been slowest to come in. The MDC (Mutambara)’s 5 seats are all in Matabeleland South.

There have been some impressive gains for the MDC – for example a win in Gokwe Kabuyuni, and defeats of Zanu PF heavies like Chen Chimutengwende in Mazowe Central and Patrick Chinamasa in Makoni Central.

But there are also some worrying trends. At a House of Assembly level, the MDC and Zanu PF are almost tied in the number of constituencies won, but Zanu PF is ahead in terms of the number of votes cast. When the MDC wins, it is winning by an average of 3,000 votes. When Zanu PF wins, it wins by an average of over 4,000. So the MDC (Tsvangirai) is trailing Zanu PF in total votes cast by about 13%.

Zanu PF has also claimed some much larger wins than the MDC (Tsvangirai) has been given. In Mt Darwin West, Uzumba, Rushinga and Maramba Pfungwe, over 13,000 people reportedly voted for Zanu PF in each of these constituencies. The MDC’s largest wins are Budiriro (11,880 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)), Warren Park (9,652 people voted MDC (Tsvangirai)) and Hatfield (9,575 votes for MDC (Tsvangirai). Voter turn out is around 40% – but Zanu PF won seats tend to be over this average, and MDC won seats – particularly in Bulawayo, are hovering far under. These particularly high turn out rural seats are among those the MDC will dispute, but court challenges have never been a productive way to challenge Zanu PF’s rule.

Also, the split in the MDC has handed Zanu PF some victories it might not other wise have taken, including Mutare South, Lupane West, Gokwe Kabuyuni, Vungu, Zvishavane-Ngezi and in particular Chirumanzu, where the MDC split right up the middle and back down both sides, with not one or two but three MDC candidates contesting.

There are still no guarantees. Zanu PF has more votes than any other party. But it only has 47% of the votes cast so far. If this trend continues at the presidential level, and Robert Mugabe (or any other candidate) doesn’t more than 50% of the presidential votes, a runoff will have to take place.

It’s either the guy just has an ear for good music or this is simply his deliberate idea of bringing “protest music” to the public domain. Others however, despite enjoying the music, still think this guy is plain stupid. This is a council owned “beer garden” as these places were called during the Federation years and are still thus called where men and women gather to take in huge quaffs of opaque beer. They do this under beautiful shady trees where a cool breeze defies the harsh African sun and they breathe good clean air and experience nature’s beauty – gratis.

Blaring from the speakers of a public address system with the din reaching more than 5 five neighbourhood streets is music which is likely to earn the man spinning the discs a thorough beating from the thought police. He plays Hugh Masekela where he exhorts by name African despots – including our very own – to cede power and retire peacefully; he plays Mbongeni Ngema’s Freedom Is Coming Tomorrow, from the Sarafina soundtrack; he plays Thomas Mapfumo’s Jojo; he plays that Oliver Mutukudzi classic Bvuma. And I am like, “What the %*$#? This is Sunday where those who voted and those who didn’t are at the pub imagining they are whiling away minutes expecting the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission to begin the announcement of Saturday’s polls and here is a guy nailing his colours to the mast giving patrons – and whole neighbourhoods – his thoughts about the current affairs.

Who can blame him? Imbibers enjoy the beer and music despite their circumstances, and for them hope lies in both the music and deep in their hearts that a better Zimbabwe is nigh. If Chinx could sing about whites, if Manyika could sing about whites, if Toilet Tambaoga could sing about Blair, why can’t Zimbos who can’t sing listen to the music of their choice?

“There are two things worth aiming for: good music and a clean conscience” Paul Hindemith, 1895-1963, German composer

Zapiro’s very clear statement on what the results of a free and fair election would say.