It appears to me that there is much excitement around Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections, and even naive hope that Simba Makoni may somehow, by some miracle, defeat Mugabe at the polls. People seem to have forgotten that democracy and good governance are not part of Zanu PF’s political DNA. President Mugabe was not elected by his party to be Presidential candidate – in fact l believe that if the matter had been taken to the vote then Mugabe would not have been the candidate – but through hook and crook Mugabe emerged as Zanu’s sole Presidential candidate. The same thing is likely to happen with presidential elections, that Mugabe will somehow claim victory, regardless of the credentials or stature of candidates running against him. The electoral field does not allow for any other outcome. Already, pseudo-war veterans are threatening to deal viciously with Makoni.

Looking ahead, past the already rigged March 29 elections, the question is: what can be done for the people of Zimbabwe to prevail on Zanu PF and President Mugabe to embrace fundamental human rights, genuine democracy and good governance values?

Firstly, now, before the elections take place, the opposition and independent candidates must declare that the playing field is not level and detail all areas of concern from lack of access to free media, inability to campaign freely, a litany of repressive laws and widespread violence and intimidation. They and civil society must demand that Thabo Mbeki declares his initiative a failure before elections take place and point to the SADC standards and guidelines for the conduct of free and fair elections. Advocacy for regional action must target individual members of the SADC block because there are some culprit governments in SADC that share a passionate dislike for human rights and democracy alongside Zimbabwe and are preventing SADC from taking a more robust stance on Zimbabwe – these are Angola, Namibia and Swaziland. There is some hope in looking to South Africa, Zambia, Mozambique and Tanzania to put pressure on Zimbabwe.

Secondly, SADC should now be dispatching observers to monitor Zimbabwe’s elections and additionally, South Africa should send its own team of observers in order to assist in the post-election period when the legitimacy of the election is called in question. Local groups must also be collecting evidence now of how the election is being rigged and not be sidetracked by the appearance on the horizon of the likes of Simba Makoni. For instance, l am highly suspicious of the figure being peddled in State media that 5.6 million people registered to vote in Zimbabwe, can this figure be independently verified?

Thirdly, the African Union and the African Commission on Human and People’s Rights must also have a team on the ground to ensure that Zimbabwe complies with its obligations under the African Charter on Human and People’s Rights particularly relating to conduct of elections. The legitimacy of the March 2008 elections will obviously be contested, so it better for the opposition and civil society to start preparing the evidence now, or alternative action. I support regional pressure (SADC led by South Africa) on Zimbabwe because l know that an internal uprising, without outside support, will lead to many deaths (given that our police force is trigger-happy and highly partisan), possibly on the scale of Kenya, if not worse. When elections were rigged in 2002 and 2005 Zimbabwe escaped violence but was let down by the region, my prayer is – please Not in 2008 again. It is my hope that the People’s Charter from the People’s Convention of 8 and 9 February will fully address some of these issues.

An analysis of the MDC’s comedy of errors reveals a party leadership that is naive, politically immature and obsessed with getting to state house as an end in itself. Lack of clear leadership and capacity to take advantage of the many opportunities presenting in Zimbabwe for change have left me doubting the MDC’s capacity not only to dislodge the ZANU PF regime from power but also to govern. MDC has earned itself the description of ‘a popular but largely ineffective opposition in Zimbabwe’. The strategies employed to date to oust the Mugabe regime has left many wondering when they will deliver the change promised two parliamentary elections ago. Ineffectiveness suggests use of inappropriate approaches, irrelevant tools and methods (that may have worked in the past but are no longer effective) coupled with poor analysis of the situation and lack of clear direction. As the saying goes, if you continue to do the same thing, you will always get what you have always gotten-in this case defeat. This requires changes in tactics and approaches (zvinoda kuchinja maitiro) as the MDC saying goes. The MDC and ZANU (PF) have failed to move the country beyond their differences and judging by how conflicts have gone elsewhere in Africa, the stalemate can last for decades while people on the ground are suffering.

. . . so says Maggie Makanza in her recent article entitled, The ‘makonifactor’ in the Zimbabwe Presidential race – seeing into the future.

Maggie raises a number of interesting points. Worth noting is her comment on Zimbabweans having an “emotional” attachment to the Movement for Democratic Change which translates into the feeling that one “should” vote for them because they’ve had a long and hard battle against Mugabe and Zanu PF. But Maggie rightly points out that our blind acceptance and support for Mugabe “the liberator” helped establish his dictatorship and landed us in the mess we’re in now. I’ve been interested to note that for many Zimbabweans our politics boils down to the good guys versus the bad guys. Unfortunately that is just not good enough! Zimbabweans across the board need to get more demanding of their political candidates and keep them accountable, before, during and after elections.

Maggie also raises the issue of selfishness and takes the MDC to task for their inability to set aside their differences to present a united front to challenge Mugabe . . .

The issue is not whether the MDC should participate in elections or not as asked elsewhere. They are damned if they do, and damned if they don’t following a comedy of tragic errors in the Mbeki brokered negotiations with ZANU PF and self-centredness shown through its recent failure to unite the splintered Tsvangirai/Mutambara factions over a mere 20 seats in parliament. I also read elsewhere that sitting MPs in the Tsvangirai led faction will retain their seats and not contest primary elections. Perhaps they do not understand the very democracy that they are fighting for. While Zimbabwe is burning, they haggle over 20 seats in parliament and are interested in protecting their positions, so what is the difference with ZANU PF?

Read the full text of her article here and also check out our special index page of aggregated information on Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections.

The only people who don’t seem vaguely fazed by Simba Makoni’s election bid are the beauticians in Cleopatra’s Beauty Parlour next to my office. They seem to have fallen asleep face first in their towels. Yesterday, a friend of mine called Anna, told me that its a good thing that Simba is posing some sort of challenge to Mugabe because, in her words, “Mugabe is an old man and doesn’t listen to the people”. There’s truth in that.

Speaking of people I’ve just been surprised to read that 15 members of Women of Zimbabwe Arise (WOZA) were arrested whilst waiting to book into Meikles Hotel. Apparently the WOZA activists had come to Harare for the People’s Convention being co-ordinated by various civil society organisations. Quite honestly, I was astounded that WOZA were booked into a 5 * hotel. OK, its not that I expect social justice activists to rest their heads in some flea pit of a backpacker’s hostel on Herbert Chitepo Avenue. But choosing to spend their donor dollars on 5 *s makes me question how in touch with the people the organisers of the People’s Convention really are?

Kubatana regularly receives quality contributions which we often publish as opinion on our web site. Dewa Mavhinga, a researcher for the Zimbabwe Human Rights NGO Forum in London, shares his thoughts with us (below) on Zimbabwe’s forthcoming elections and reaffirms what we all know: the problem is the electoral playing field!

It is interesting to note how the candidacy of Simba Makoni as an independent in Zimbabwe’s presidential elections has triggered a flurry of comments and emotion. It has been seen as a beacon of hope, a reason to vote in the 29 March elections. The challenge is that Simba Makoni’s candidacy does not alter the unequal electoral playing field. Zimbabwe has not embraced standards and principles that enable the country to run a credible, free and fair election. The country’s voters’ roll is in a shambles, constitutional amendment 18 introduced 90 more constituencies whose boundaries people know little of. Democratic space has all but disappeared, airwaves are still a monopoly of the ruling Zanu PF party, Zimbabwe still does not have an independent daily paper and it is common knowledge that food distribution is on partisan lines.

It is not as if Morgan Tsvangirai failed to defeat Mugabe in the 2002 elections, what happened is that the election was stolen by Zanu Pf through its manipulation of state machinery. Therefore, Simba Makoni may very well be a darling of voters but that is not enough. In Zimbabwe it is not the vote that matters, but the counting and he who controls state machinery determines the outcome of any election. Focus for us Zimbabweans should not be on the candidates as such, but on whether or not an election in Zimbabwe at present is capable of reflecting the wishes of the people and whether or not the Zimbabwe election complies with minimum SADC standards and guidelines for the conduct of free and fair elections. Civil society in Zimbabwe should continue to demand respect for human rights and the opening up of airwaves and fundamental reforms in key governance and electoral institutions. For instance, the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) must be revamped and be made totally independent, the Registrar General, Tobaiwa Mudede must not have anything to do with the running of elections and all candidates and political formations must have unfettered access to the electorate.

Without adequate reforms in Zimbabwe’s electoral process it would be difficult for Zimbabwe to avoid the Kenya route. As long as Zanu PF has a monopoly of access to State TV, Radio and newspapers, and as long as Zanu PF denies opposition and independent candidates access to all corners of Zimbabwe, then the outcome of March 2008 elections is already known. The significance of Simba Makoni’s breakaway from Zanu PF is that, in the likely event that Zanu PF rigs elections and claims victory in March 2008, Makoni will hopefully group together with disgruntled elements in Zanu PF and with opposition forces, to challenge Mugabe and insist on a level playing field. Makoni may also be able to persuade South Africa to call a spade a spade and condemn electoral theft by Zanu PF.

Today there’s a lot of buzz around the shopping centre where I work in Harare. The buzz is about Simba Makoni’s election bid. The first person to grab hold of me on the stairs was a heavily blue eye-shadowed Italian woman who held on to my arm tightly in excitement saying that everyone she’d encountered was pleased to see Simba sit up and growl (well, maybe more like murmur).

Likewise vendors and bank tellers are also having pow wows chatting about what might be in store for us in March. David, the video store manager, echoed what most others are saying . . . that many have lost faith in the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) and an alternative to Morgan Tsvangirai is much needed, and welcomed. In our office Dennis suggested that Simba’s entry into the race is a ploy by Mugabe to steal votes from disillusioned MDC supporters.

Yes, it’s quite likely that Makoni will attract a large number of Zimbabweans who would have voted for Tsvangirai. If Makoni does attract this support it means that Zanu PF’s chunk of the vote, one way or another, gets bigger. So how independent is Simba? How genuine is his bid? Is he a late minute spoiler, or Mugabe’s running puppet?

I must say I smiled to myself when I read one of Eddie Cross’ latest justifications for the MDC participating in this farce of an election. He’s quoted as saying

Our focus has to be on the campaign — explaining to the voters what we will do if elected.

Every Zimbabwean, across all walks of life, will tell Eddie that the MDC won’t win because the electoral reforms that the MDC have been negotiating for the last many months have not been adopted. The election will be rigged. Mugabe will win. What Eddie and the rest of the MDC gang should be focused on is their Plan B: what to do when the election is stolen.

Elementary my dear Mr Cross.

OK, here’s the fourth installment in my Quest for Nomination.

Went back this morning. (Before going to work – and then coming home because there is no power at work). Saw the same three, cheerful individuals. Very nice greeting and ‘everything is in order’ and given a new voters registration certificate, and told the roll will be reprinted before election day, so I am ready to go. At least from the administration point of view.

Now I need to get my nominators to sign, (and more is better, there is no upper limit) and present myself and papers to the nomination court on Friday. So will not bother you until then.

Zvakanaka!